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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement receives the award. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest shock.

However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and longtime also-rans improving in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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